Uncertainty and Complexity: Leadership Opportunities
Viv Read Director
Complexability Pty Ltd
Whatever the words we each might use to describe our respective ‘current states’ – it seems to me that ‘extraordinary’ is one that passes the test for now – and the foreseeable future. And it also meets one of the tests of complexity – sufficient ambiguity that we can find within it our own meaning for our own context and sufficient commonality of understanding of the concept that we can have a shared conversation.
Complexity, in all of its manifestations, has become fashionable and is now part of the lexicon and language of management and leadership. Along with ambiguity, uncertainty, volatility – and there are many more – books, products, and services abound that purport to tell managers and leaders how to be different in order to thrive, compete, and succeed.
The real challenge for leaders and leadership in extraordinary times – is how to make sense, make meaning, and take actions that have an impact on the system as a whole. Actions need to be responsive and contextual, able to be monitored, amplified, or dampened quickly. There needs to be scale. And humanity. And the ability to quickly respond to unintended consequences.
Complexity science.. the nature of complex adaptive systems and its application to human systems is what provides leaders with the opportunities to be humane, and transformative in extraordinary times.
The first step?
Understanding and accepting that a complex system or issue is…different. The resulting tools, methods, processes, and systems – for assessment, decision-making, strategy, engagement, and leadership must also be different to be effective.
And that many of the tools and methods that have served leaders well in more stable and predictable contexts are not always fit for purpose in current times.
A useful starting point is the work of – Robert Poli (1)
His paper in 2013, states
- The difference between complex and complicated systems is one of type and not degree.
- Learning to ‘dance’ with a complex system is different from ‘solving’ the problems that arise from it
- Complex problems and systems result from networks of multiple interacting causes that cannot be individually distinguished;
- And must be addressed as entire systems, that is they cannot be addressed in a piecemeal way;
- Small inputs may result in disproportionate effects; leaders must be ready to accept the consequences
- The problems they present cannot be solved once and forever, but require to be systematically managed and typically any intervention merges into new problems as a result of the interventions dealing with them
Or to put it another way, with reference to the work of Dave Snowden(2) there are no linear causalities in a complex system, only dispositions. The challenge is about ‘managing’ emergence through constraints, catalysts, and energy allocation.
Getting beyond the concepts …to application
The area of theory and applied practice that has emerged – is called Naturalising SenseMaking
- Integrating complexity science, the natural sciences, anthropology, physics, Indigenous Knowledge, neuro-science,
- Working with humans/ human systems the way they have evolved to be rather than ‘ideal’ visions
( See the reference list below for those whose work and thinking continue to inform this emerging area of knowledge)
The Opportunity..for leaders and leadership
- Making sense of complexity systems/issues in order to act with
- Enough agreement to try something – through the test of coherence, and a sense of direction and
- Managing through monitoring and adapting – not controlling
Being Humane by using complexity-based methods and processes that incorporate the principles of
- Epistemic Justice –all perspectives are valuable, and everyone can engage and participate
- Cognitive Sovereignty – not just having opinions and voices heard, ensuring participants have access to their own data, being able to act on it and monitor results
The Cynefin® Framework.. for decision support and sense-making
Some 21 years ago, the Cynefin® framework developed by Dave Snowden (2) first emerged, and it has had several iterations and developments over the years. One of the most cited articles is from the Harvard Business Review 2007, ‘A Leaders Guide to Decision Making’ (2) which shows how using the framework guides leaders’ actions and approaches to fit their circumstances. It is a framework – not a description of how the world should be, rather a way of making sense of an issue
More recently, ‘Managing Complexity (and Chaos) in times of Crisis’,(2) a joint publication between Cognitive Edge and EU Commission, strategies for leaders that enable dancing with complexity include the Cynefin® framework as part of the portfolio.
In practical terms..
There are both what leaders can do – and how to do it.. both are derived from understanding the characteristics of complexity in human systems and acting in ways that are coherent and consistent with those principles. Complexity-based tools and methods, including the Cynefin® framework, incorporate some of the fundamental principles including:
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- Bounded applicability – knowing the nature of the systems/issue results in choosing appropriate tools, methods, and interventions.
- The critical importance of context – and the limited application of ‘best practice’
- Bounded applicability – knowing the nature of the systems/issue results in choosing appropriate tools, methods, and interventions.
- Multiple, small, parallel initiatives – given any intervention has unintended consequences for which leaders are responsible, the approach requires small interventions where the impact can be monitored and choices regarding action easily taken
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- Risk in complex environments – given that mistakes and a level of failure is inevitable the risk strategy is based on early detection and excellence in recovery; not risk avoidance.
- Performance measures –complex environments need lead, not lag, impact as well as outcome and output
- Embracing diversity and variety – deliberately seeking alternate and different perspectives, breaking pattern entrainment, shifting perspectives to enable innovation
- Influencing complex systems through changing connections rather than people
In Summary
Uncertainty and Complexity provide opportunities for leaders – and leadership. There are choices about what – and how. The starting point is an understanding that the very nature of complexity requires leaders to think and behave differently to have an impact that builds resilient and humane cultures.
There is a continually developing and emerging body of knowledge and practice, and an international network of practitioners and organisations applying the methods and processes to good effect. The Forum provides a platform for leaders and organisations from Bangladesh to participate and develop; their own context-specific approaches.
Footnote:
These perspectives draw on the work and shared projects with the late Professor Bill Ford, ( workplace reform through a framework of People, Process, Place) who was my teacher and mentor for over 40 years, and more recently Prof Dave Snowden and colleagues from The Cynefin Co. https://thecynefin.co and Complexability ( www.complexability.com.au).
I also acknowledge the traditional owners of Australia and the Torres Strait Islands, their connection to land and sea, and the Indigenous Knowledge that contribute to the complexity-based facilitation methods used by Complexability in community consultation and engagement.
References
(1) A Note on the Difference Between Complicated and Complex Social Systems
Roberto Poli Cadmusjournal.org Volume 2 Issue October 2103
(2) Dave Snowden https://thecynefin.co
Dave is the creator of the Cynefin Framework, and originated the design of SenseMaker®, the world’s first distributed ethnography tool. His work is international in nature and covers government and industry looking at complex issues relating to strategy and organisational decision-making.
A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making
David J. Snowden and Mary E. Boone HBR November 2007
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Rancati, A., Snowden, D., Managing complexity (and chaos) in times of crisis : a field guide for decision makers inspired by the Cynefin framework, Publications Office, 2021, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2760/353
(3) Influential contributors to Naturalising SenseMaking
- Max Boisot, I-Space KM The danger of Retrospective coherence.. Modelled the dynamic flow of knowledge.
“There are simply hundreds of points in human systems that are changing dynamically, which does not allow us to use retrospective coherence to predict future risks and / or opportunities.”
https://academic.oup.com/book/8552/chapter-abstract/154420346?redirectedFrom=fulltext
- Gary Klein, Naturalising Decision Making: Klein’s “sources of power” for decision-making by experts are intuition, mental simulation, metaphor and storytelling.
https://www.gary-klein.com/publications
- Alicia Juarraro: Proposes a new framework for conceptualizing causes based on complex adaptive systems.